Why Political Pundits Are Becoming More Wrong – The New Yorker

But the element that has caught forecasters most off-guard this year has been a more fundamental change—a seeming decline in the predictability of politics because of a shift in how institutions shape outcomes. In an admirable explanation of where he and others went astray, Silver wrote that he was overly skeptical of Trump’s prospects because he “assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.” He relied on the presumption, once sound, that the Party itself would make decisive choices, in the form of endorsements and funding, that would bless some candidates and doom others. The parties, it turns out, are weaker and more out of touch than observers understood.

Source: Why Political Pundits Are Becoming More Wrong – The New Yorker

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